2017-12-05 - Ore 15.00 - Aula 0M04
"Modeling as a powerful tool for fighting farm epidemics"
Speaker: Prof. Ezio Venturino, Università di Torino
Proponent: Vincenzo Ferone, Guido Trombetti
We discuss models for a disease first reported in 1974, [1], the Caprine Arthritis Encephalitis virus disease (CAEV). It affects mainly goats with symptoms such as arthritis, pneumonia, mastitis, encephalitis, encephalomyelitis. It represents an economic burden because the infected goats, that cannot be identified unless expensive laboratory tests are performed, produce less milk and are more easily affected by other pathologies.
Several viral strains cause this pathology, called lentiviruses, because of their very slow appearing clinical signs, after several years of incubation. The so-called genotype B is pathogenic and can be transmitted both vertically and horizontally. The lentivirus genotype E is transmitted just vertically. Its prototype is named the Roccaverano strain, from the place where it was first discovered. Goats infected by this genotype do not present disease signs and do not harm the breedings.
We investigate a basic CAEV system for modeling only genotype B and a further one in which both strains are present. The findings indicate that eradication of the pathogenic genotype is possible by reversing the actual policy commonly used nowadays by the farmers to combat the spread of this disease.
References
[1] L.C. Cork, W.J. Hadlow, T.B. Crawford, J.R. Gorham, R.C. Piper (1974) Infectious Leuco-encephalomyelitis of young goats, J. Infect. Dis. Volume 129, 134–141.
[2] M. Pittavino, L. Ferreri, M. Giacobini, L. Bertolotti, Sergio Rosati, Ezio Venturino (2014) A CAEV epidemiological model for goat breeding, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 227, 156–163.