The pandemic playbook, A physicist take
Abstract
Pandemics are a threat to humanity and therefore understanding their spreading dynamics is paramount to controlling it. The disease diffusion dynamics is traditionally described via compartmental models or complex network diffusion techniques, providing an accurate description of the initial time evolution of the number of affected individuals. I will introduce a novel approach, stemming from particle physics methodology, that makes use of the underlying symmetries of the theory for pandemics.
This is the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework that has been shown to provide robust prognoses for the time evolution of a pandemic across different regions of the world and how they interacting with each others. COVID-19 data are used to test and calibrate the approach. I will also show how to use Google and Apple mobility data to provide a global understanding of social distancing effects and timing dynamics.
Because of the simplicity of the eRG approach, that is organised around symmetry principles, it amounts to a paradigm shift in the way epidemiological data are mathematically modelled and rationalised.
LINK al Seminario su Microsoft Teams
Proponente/organizzatore: Prof. Leonardo Merola, Gennaro Miele, Pietro Santorelli